By now, you know the US economy added 128,000 jobs in October — a not-great number, if better than consensus forecasts. Even so, the number masks a weird duality in recent economic news, one America will revisit throughout its election year.
The economy is working worst for many of the exact industries — and people — President Donald Trump set out to help most. Six months ago, we debated whether a “boom” that was never really a boom would toss him to re-election despite ethical follies now threatening him with impeachment. Now, it’s whether the economy is cracking on him at the very worst time — as ethical follies still threaten him with impeachment.
The bad news for Trump is that the people he needs for re-election are in the path of that.
Consider this week’s news beyond the jobs report, which showed unemployment ticking up to 3.6 per cent, still near a 50-year low. Manufacturing is the smallest percentage of GDP it has been in 70 years, according to a new Commerce Department report. The manufacturing sector is in an earnings recession, with second-quarter profits down 9 per cent, stocks underperforming the S&P 500 as third-quarter reports roll in, and another profit drop expected in the fourth quarter, according to CFRA Research.
And coal companies! Murray Energy, the largest US coal producer, filed for bankruptcy this week, the 8th coal company to do so in the last year. Coal’s share of the market for US electricity fuel has fallen by half, to about 24 per cent, since 2000.
These are Trump’s tribe, or so we’re told. They’re why he carried Ohio by eight points in 2016, and gave him narrow wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Yet, General Motors is closing its Lordstown plant near Youngstown, Ohio and manufacturing employment is down in all four states this year. “Get ready,” Trump promised miners in 2016. “You’re going to be working your asses off!” He promised factory workers a “new industrial revolution.’’
Eep.
The story’s the same in the GDP report, released Wednesday. What’s holding things back is sluggish corporate investment — a category where manufacturers from Boeing to General Motors play an outsized role. Equipment spending shrank 3.8 per cent. Spending on structures fell more, partly because oil rigs are structures and crude is relatively cheap.
That’s a terrible performance, since investment is about 18 per cent of the economy — and was supposed to get juiced by the corporate tax cut. At the same time, manufacturers like Caterpillar and 3M also depend on exports to sustain profits (and jobs), and net exports subtracted a tenth of a point from third-quarter GDP.
What do these areas have in common? They were supposed to rise based on Trump policies that failed.
Manufacturing’s weakness, like exports’, is mostly about trade policy. Trump wanted a smaller trade deficit, so he raised tariffs. China responded in kind. Companies like GM and Alcoa warned of the impact — as many as a third of Standard & Poor’s 500 index companies have blamed trade policy for hurting business. Slower business freezes investment.
Coal is the most obvious case of Trump’s (perfectly predictable) policy failure. The president’s signature move — and centerpiece of his claim that his deregulation boosts growth — is rolling back the Clean Power Plan, Barack Obama’s signature move to reduce carbon emissions that cause climate change.
To own Obama, Trump decided to bet on a fading technology. We’ve seen that movie before — on a VHS cassette. Coal can compete when natural gas costs $6 per million British Thermal Units of heat, Moody’s Investors Service says. It costs $2.52 now, thanks to hydraulic fracking. Trump may as well sell Honda Accords for $100,000.
Trump’s response to companies’ complaints was to tweet that companies were making excuses. This week, he launched a campaign ad hailing an economy that has added 6 million jobs since he took office. Trouble is, the same economy added 11.4 million during Bill Clinton’s first term, and almost 6 million even during the aftermath of the financial crisis in Barack Obama’s first term.
1/22 Donald Trump
Accused of abusing his office by pressing the Ukrainian president in a July phone call to help dig up dirt on Joe Biden, who may be his Democratic rival in the 2020 election.
He also believes that Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails – a key factor in the 2016 election – may be in Ukraine, although it is not clear why.
Reuters
2/22 The Whistleblower
Believed to be a CIA agent who spent time at the White House, his complaint was largely based on second and third-hand accounts from worried White House staff. Although this is not unusual for such complaints, Trump and his supporters have seized on it to imply that his information is not reliable.
Expected to give evidence to Congress voluntarily and in secret.
Getty
3/22 The Second Whistleblower
The lawyer for the first intelligence whistleblower is also representing a second whistleblower regarding the President’s actions. Attorney Mark Zaid said that he and other lawyers on his team are now representing the second person, who is said to work in the intelligence community and has first-hand knowledge that supports claims made by the first whistleblower and has spoken to the intelligence community’s inspector general. The second whistleblower has not yet filed their own complaint, but does not need to to be considered an official whistleblower.
Getty
4/22 Rudy Giuliani
Former mayor of New York, whose management of the aftermath of the September 11 attacks in 2001 won him worldwide praise. As Trump’s personal attorney he has been trying to find compromising material about the president’s enemies in Ukraine in what some have termed a “shadow” foreign policy.
In a series of eccentric TV appearances he has claimed that the US state department asked him to get involved. Giuliani insists that he is fighting corruption on Trump’s behalf and has called himself a “hero”.
AP
5/22 Volodymyr Zelensky
The newly elected Ukrainian president – a former comic actor best known for playing a man who becomes president by accident – is seen frantically agreeing with Trump in the partial transcript of their July phone call released by the White House.
With a Russian-backed insurgency in the east of his country, and the Crimea region seized by Vladimir Putin in 2014, Zelensky will have been eager to please his American counterpart, who had suspended vital military aid before their phone conversation.
He says there was no pressure on him from Trump to do him the “favour” he was asked for.
Zelensky appeared at an awkward press conference with Trump in New York during the United Nations general assembly, looking particularly uncomfortable when the American suggested he take part in talks with Putin.
AFP/Getty
6/22 Mike Pence
The vice-president was not on the controversial July call to the Ukrainian president but did get a read-out later.
However, Trump announced that Pence had had “one or two” phone conversations of a similar nature, dragging him into the crisis. Pence himself denies any knowledge of any wrongdoing and has insisted that there is no issue with Trump’s actions.
It has been speculated that Trump involved Pence as an insurance policy – if both are removed from power the presidency would go to Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, something no Republican would allow.
AP
7/22 Rick Perry
Trump reportedly told a meeting of Republicans that he made the controversial call to the Ukrainian president at the urging of his own energy secretary, Rick Perry, and that he didn’t even want to.
The president apparently said that Perry wanted him to talk about liquefied natural gas – although there is no mention of it in the partial transcript of the phone call released by the White House. It is thought that Perry will step down from his role at the end of the year.
Getty
8/22 Joe Biden
The former vice-president is one of the frontrunners to win the Democratic nomination, which would make him Trump’s opponent in the 2020 election.
Trump says that Biden pressured Ukraine to sack a prosecutor who was investigating an energy company that Biden’s son Hunter was on the board of, refusing to release US aid until this was done.
However, pressure to fire the prosecutor came on a wide front from western countries. It is also believed that the investigation into the company, Burisma, had long been dormant.
Reuters
9/22 Hunter Biden
Joe Biden’s son has been accused of corruption by the president because of his business dealings in Ukraine and China. However, Trump has yet to produce any evidence of corruption and Biden’s lawyer insists he has done nothing wrong.
AP
10/22 William Barr
The attorney-general, who proved his loyalty to Trump with his handling of the Mueller report, was mentioned in the Ukraine call as someone president Volodymyr Zelensky should talk to about following up Trump’s preoccupations with the Biden’s and the Clinton emails.
Nancy Pelosi has accused Barr of being part of a “cover-up of a cover-up”.
AP
11/22 Mike Pompeo
The secretary of state initially implied he knew little about the Ukraine phone call – but it later emerged that he was listening in at the time.
He has since suggested that asking foreign leaders for favours is simply how international politics works.
AFP via Getty
12/22 Nancy Pelosi
The Democratic Speaker of the House had long resisted calls from within her own party to back a formal impeachment process against the president, apparently fearing a backlash from voters. On September 24, amid reports of the Ukraine call and the day before the White House released a partial transcript of it, she relented and announced an inquiry, saying: “The president must be held accountable. No one is above the law.”
Getty
13/22 Adam Schiff
Democratic chairman of the House intelligence committee, one of the three committees leading the inquiry.
He was criticized by Republicans for giving what he called a “parody” of the Ukraine phone call during a hearing, with Trump and others saying he had been pretending that his damning characterisation was a verbatim reading of the phone call.
He has also been criticised for claiming that his committee had had no contact with the whistleblower, only for it to emerge that the intelligence agent had contacted a staff member on the committee for guidance before filing the complaint.
The Washington Post awarded Schiff a “four Pinocchios” rating, its worst rating for a dishonest statement.
Reuters
14/22 Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman
Florida-based businessmen and Republican donors Lev Parnas (pictured with Rudy Giuliani) and Igor Fruman were arrested on suspicion of campaign finance violations at Dulles International Airport near Washington DC on 9 October.
Separately the Associated Press has reported that they were both involved in efforts to replace the management of Ukraine’s gas company, Naftogaz, with new bosses who would steer lucrative contracts towards companies controlled by Trump allies. There is no suggestion of any criminal activity in these efforts.
Reuters
15/22 Kurt Volker
The former US ambassador to NATO was appointed special envoy to Ukraine, and is thought to have played a role in linking Giuliani with Ukraine officials.
He resigned just before giving evidence to Congress, which had subpoenaed him.
After his testimony it emerged that he had apparently told Giuliani that he was being fed false information about the Bidens from Ukrainian officials.
Getty Images
16/22 Marie Yovanovitch
A career diplomat who was appointed US ambassador to Ukraine towards the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. She was abruptly recalled from her post in May 2019 amid claims that she was not co-operating with Rudy Giuliani’s unorthodox activities in Ukraine.
In the Ukraine phone call Trump refers to her as “the woman” and “bad news” and hints darkly at some sort of retribution, saying: “Well, she’s going to go through some things.”
Yovanovitch told House investigators in October that she felt as though she were targeted by a false accusations from Giuliani and his associates, who allegedly viewed her as a threat to their political and financial interests.
She also said that State Department officials had told her she did nothing wrong, and that her abrupt removal was not related to her performance. Trump had simply lost faith in her abilities.
AP
17/22 Gordon Sondland
A Seattle hotelier who became US ambassador to the European Union after donating $1 million to Trump’s inauguration committee, despite having no diplomatic experience.
According to the whistleblower, Sondland met Ukrainian politicians to help them “understand and respond to the differing messages they were receiving from official US channels on one hand and from Mr GIuliani on the other”.
Sondland told House investigators during October 2019 testimony that he had been disappointed with Trump’s decision to involve his personal lawyer in dealings with Kiev — and stated that the president refused counsel from his top diplomats, and demanded Volodymyr Zelensky satisfy his concerns about corruption. Those diplomats had told Trump to meet with Zelensky without preconditions, according to Sondland.
His testimony is at odds with the testimony of some other foreign policy officials, however, who indicated that Sondland was a willing participant.
Reuters
18/22 George Kent
A career diplomat, he was number two at the Ukraine embassy under Marie Yovanovitch.
Kent testified before House investigators in October 2019 that he was cut out of Ukraine policymaking after a May meeting orchestrated by acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, and was told to “lay low”.
The deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs said that he though it was “wrong” that he was sidelines by Trump’s inner circle.
Following the May meeting, Kent said he was edged out by Gordon Sondland, Kurt Volker, and Rick Perry, who “declared themselves the three people now responsible for Ukraine policy”, according to a politician who attended the closed door testimony.
AFP via Getty Images
19/22 Ulrich Brechbuhl
An adviser to secretary of state Mike Pompeo, with whom he has run businesses. The two were also at West Point military academy together.
Swiss-born Brechbuhl is said to handle “special diplomatic assignments”.
Subpoenaed to give evidence to Congress in November.
US State Department
20/22 Philip Reeker
Philip Reeker, the acting assistant secretary of State, testified that he did not find out about a push by the Trump administration to force Ukraine to publicly announce an investigation into former vice president Joe Biden until the whistleblower complaint was made public.
While he was asked about any quid pro quo in that regard, Reeker indicated he was in the dark and so could not provide further details.
But, he did fill in details during his October 2019 testimony on the circumstances surrounding the firing of Marie Yovanovitch. Democrats described his testimony has providing further backup to other testimony they had heard.
AP
21/22 William Taylor
William Taylor, the top US diplomat to Ukraine, testified during an October 2019 hearing in the house that American aid to Ukraine was explicitly tied to the country’s willingness to investigate Donald Trump’s political rival.
Taylor’s testimony was explosive, and made him a key witness to the Trump administration’s efforts to use the force of the American government to push a politically motivated investigation against Joe Biden.
He said the efforts came through an “irregular, informal channel of US policy-making” led by Rudy Giuliani, Kurt Volker, Rick Perry, and Gordon Sondland.
AP
22/22 Alexander Vindman
Lietenant colonel Alexander Vindman is a top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council, and a decorated Iraq war veteran.
He planned to tell the House impeachment inquiry that he heard Donald Trump appeal to Ukraine’s president to investigate his leading political rivals. Mr Vindman said he considered the request so damaging to American interests that he reported it to a superior — twice.
He is the first person to testify before the House impeachment inquiry who actually listened in on the 25 July phone call, in which Trump urged Volodymyr Zelensky to start an investigation into Joe Biden.
Getty Images
1/22 Donald Trump
Accused of abusing his office by pressing the Ukrainian president in a July phone call to help dig up dirt on Joe Biden, who may be his Democratic rival in the 2020 election.
He also believes that Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails – a key factor in the 2016 election – may be in Ukraine, although it is not clear why.
Reuters
2/22 The Whistleblower
Believed to be a CIA agent who spent time at the White House, his complaint was largely based on second and third-hand accounts from worried White House staff. Although this is not unusual for such complaints, Trump and his supporters have seized on it to imply that his information is not reliable.
Expected to give evidence to Congress voluntarily and in secret.
Getty
3/22 The Second Whistleblower
The lawyer for the first intelligence whistleblower is also representing a second whistleblower regarding the President’s actions. Attorney Mark Zaid said that he and other lawyers on his team are now representing the second person, who is said to work in the intelligence community and has first-hand knowledge that supports claims made by the first whistleblower and has spoken to the intelligence community’s inspector general. The second whistleblower has not yet filed their own complaint, but does not need to to be considered an official whistleblower.
Getty
4/22 Rudy Giuliani
Former mayor of New York, whose management of the aftermath of the September 11 attacks in 2001 won him worldwide praise. As Trump’s personal attorney he has been trying to find compromising material about the president’s enemies in Ukraine in what some have termed a “shadow” foreign policy.
In a series of eccentric TV appearances he has claimed that the US state department asked him to get involved. Giuliani insists that he is fighting corruption on Trump’s behalf and has called himself a “hero”.
AP
5/22 Volodymyr Zelensky
The newly elected Ukrainian president – a former comic actor best known for playing a man who becomes president by accident – is seen frantically agreeing with Trump in the partial transcript of their July phone call released by the White House.
With a Russian-backed insurgency in the east of his country, and the Crimea region seized by Vladimir Putin in 2014, Zelensky will have been eager to please his American counterpart, who had suspended vital military aid before their phone conversation.
He says there was no pressure on him from Trump to do him the “favour” he was asked for.
Zelensky appeared at an awkward press conference with Trump in New York during the United Nations general assembly, looking particularly uncomfortable when the American suggested he take part in talks with Putin.
AFP/Getty
6/22 Mike Pence
The vice-president was not on the controversial July call to the Ukrainian president but did get a read-out later.
However, Trump announced that Pence had had “one or two” phone conversations of a similar nature, dragging him into the crisis. Pence himself denies any knowledge of any wrongdoing and has insisted that there is no issue with Trump’s actions.
It has been speculated that Trump involved Pence as an insurance policy – if both are removed from power the presidency would go to Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, something no Republican would allow.
AP
7/22 Rick Perry
Trump reportedly told a meeting of Republicans that he made the controversial call to the Ukrainian president at the urging of his own energy secretary, Rick Perry, and that he didn’t even want to.
The president apparently said that Perry wanted him to talk about liquefied natural gas – although there is no mention of it in the partial transcript of the phone call released by the White House. It is thought that Perry will step down from his role at the end of the year.
Getty
8/22 Joe Biden
The former vice-president is one of the frontrunners to win the Democratic nomination, which would make him Trump’s opponent in the 2020 election.
Trump says that Biden pressured Ukraine to sack a prosecutor who was investigating an energy company that Biden’s son Hunter was on the board of, refusing to release US aid until this was done.
However, pressure to fire the prosecutor came on a wide front from western countries. It is also believed that the investigation into the company, Burisma, had long been dormant.
Reuters
9/22 Hunter Biden
Joe Biden’s son has been accused of corruption by the president because of his business dealings in Ukraine and China. However, Trump has yet to produce any evidence of corruption and Biden’s lawyer insists he has done nothing wrong.
AP
10/22 William Barr
The attorney-general, who proved his loyalty to Trump with his handling of the Mueller report, was mentioned in the Ukraine call as someone president Volodymyr Zelensky should talk to about following up Trump’s preoccupations with the Biden’s and the Clinton emails.
Nancy Pelosi has accused Barr of being part of a “cover-up of a cover-up”.
AP
11/22 Mike Pompeo
The secretary of state initially implied he knew little about the Ukraine phone call – but it later emerged that he was listening in at the time.
He has since suggested that asking foreign leaders for favours is simply how international politics works.
AFP via Getty
12/22 Nancy Pelosi
The Democratic Speaker of the House had long resisted calls from within her own party to back a formal impeachment process against the president, apparently fearing a backlash from voters. On September 24, amid reports of the Ukraine call and the day before the White House released a partial transcript of it, she relented and announced an inquiry, saying: “The president must be held accountable. No one is above the law.”
Getty
13/22 Adam Schiff
Democratic chairman of the House intelligence committee, one of the three committees leading the inquiry.
He was criticized by Republicans for giving what he called a “parody” of the Ukraine phone call during a hearing, with Trump and others saying he had been pretending that his damning characterisation was a verbatim reading of the phone call.
He has also been criticised for claiming that his committee had had no contact with the whistleblower, only for it to emerge that the intelligence agent had contacted a staff member on the committee for guidance before filing the complaint.
The Washington Post awarded Schiff a “four Pinocchios” rating, its worst rating for a dishonest statement.
Reuters
14/22 Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman
Florida-based businessmen and Republican donors Lev Parnas (pictured with Rudy Giuliani) and Igor Fruman were arrested on suspicion of campaign finance violations at Dulles International Airport near Washington DC on 9 October.
Separately the Associated Press has reported that they were both involved in efforts to replace the management of Ukraine’s gas company, Naftogaz, with new bosses who would steer lucrative contracts towards companies controlled by Trump allies. There is no suggestion of any criminal activity in these efforts.
Reuters
15/22 Kurt Volker
The former US ambassador to NATO was appointed special envoy to Ukraine, and is thought to have played a role in linking Giuliani with Ukraine officials.
He resigned just before giving evidence to Congress, which had subpoenaed him.
After his testimony it emerged that he had apparently told Giuliani that he was being fed false information about the Bidens from Ukrainian officials.
Getty Images
16/22 Marie Yovanovitch
A career diplomat who was appointed US ambassador to Ukraine towards the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. She was abruptly recalled from her post in May 2019 amid claims that she was not co-operating with Rudy Giuliani’s unorthodox activities in Ukraine.
In the Ukraine phone call Trump refers to her as “the woman” and “bad news” and hints darkly at some sort of retribution, saying: “Well, she’s going to go through some things.”
Yovanovitch told House investigators in October that she felt as though she were targeted by a false accusations from Giuliani and his associates, who allegedly viewed her as a threat to their political and financial interests.
She also said that State Department officials had told her she did nothing wrong, and that her abrupt removal was not related to her performance. Trump had simply lost faith in her abilities.
AP
17/22 Gordon Sondland
A Seattle hotelier who became US ambassador to the European Union after donating $1 million to Trump’s inauguration committee, despite having no diplomatic experience.
According to the whistleblower, Sondland met Ukrainian politicians to help them “understand and respond to the differing messages they were receiving from official US channels on one hand and from Mr GIuliani on the other”.
Sondland told House investigators during October 2019 testimony that he had been disappointed with Trump’s decision to involve his personal lawyer in dealings with Kiev — and stated that the president refused counsel from his top diplomats, and demanded Volodymyr Zelensky satisfy his concerns about corruption. Those diplomats had told Trump to meet with Zelensky without preconditions, according to Sondland.
His testimony is at odds with the testimony of some other foreign policy officials, however, who indicated that Sondland was a willing participant.
Reuters
18/22 George Kent
A career diplomat, he was number two at the Ukraine embassy under Marie Yovanovitch.
Kent testified before House investigators in October 2019 that he was cut out of Ukraine policymaking after a May meeting orchestrated by acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, and was told to “lay low”.
The deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs said that he though it was “wrong” that he was sidelines by Trump’s inner circle.
Following the May meeting, Kent said he was edged out by Gordon Sondland, Kurt Volker, and Rick Perry, who “declared themselves the three people now responsible for Ukraine policy”, according to a politician who attended the closed door testimony.
AFP via Getty Images
19/22 Ulrich Brechbuhl
An adviser to secretary of state Mike Pompeo, with whom he has run businesses. The two were also at West Point military academy together.
Swiss-born Brechbuhl is said to handle “special diplomatic assignments”.
Subpoenaed to give evidence to Congress in November.
US State Department
20/22 Philip Reeker
Philip Reeker, the acting assistant secretary of State, testified that he did not find out about a push by the Trump administration to force Ukraine to publicly announce an investigation into former vice president Joe Biden until the whistleblower complaint was made public.
While he was asked about any quid pro quo in that regard, Reeker indicated he was in the dark and so could not provide further details.
But, he did fill in details during his October 2019 testimony on the circumstances surrounding the firing of Marie Yovanovitch. Democrats described his testimony has providing further backup to other testimony they had heard.
AP
21/22 William Taylor
William Taylor, the top US diplomat to Ukraine, testified during an October 2019 hearing in the house that American aid to Ukraine was explicitly tied to the country’s willingness to investigate Donald Trump’s political rival.
Taylor’s testimony was explosive, and made him a key witness to the Trump administration’s efforts to use the force of the American government to push a politically motivated investigation against Joe Biden.
He said the efforts came through an “irregular, informal channel of US policy-making” led by Rudy Giuliani, Kurt Volker, Rick Perry, and Gordon Sondland.
AP
22/22 Alexander Vindman
Lietenant colonel Alexander Vindman is a top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council, and a decorated Iraq war veteran.
He planned to tell the House impeachment inquiry that he heard Donald Trump appeal to Ukraine’s president to investigate his leading political rivals. Mr Vindman said he considered the request so damaging to American interests that he reported it to a superior — twice.
He is the first person to testify before the House impeachment inquiry who actually listened in on the 25 July phone call, in which Trump urged Volodymyr Zelensky to start an investigation into Joe Biden.
Getty Images
Obama added 16 million jobs by the time he was done, and growth is slowing on Trump now — the US has added only 1.57 million jobs this year, about 30 per cent fewer than in 2015.
If polls be true, voters get it. Trump’s net approval rating (the percentage of people who approve of his performance, minus those who disapprove) is -11.7 nationally, according to Real Clear Politics. In the Midwest, he ranges from -5 in Ohio to -14 in Iowa, according to Morning Consult polling. If the election were today, he’d struggle to win any of the states where he surprised in 2016.
The known lesson here is that you never get anywhere if you buck economic reality.
It would be nice if Trump learned this. Similarly, it would be nice if Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were more humble about their ability to micromanage whole industries. What we’ll learn soon is the political price for such economic braggadocio.