A no-deal Brexit could lead to more than 700,000 jobs in the travel and tourism sector being lost over the next decade, a trade body has warned.
The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTT) has said that if Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement some 308,000 UK-based jobs and 399,000 roles in the EU would be at risk.
The figures are based on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis which forecasts there would be a 7.7 per cent decline in economic activity if the UK crashed out of the trade bloc with no deal.
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Gloria Guevara, the president and chief executive of the WTTC, whose members include chief executives from around the world, said the total cost across Europe could be more than £40bn.
“Given its importance to the UK economy it is now clear that a no-deal Brexit would have a dramatic impact on one the UK’s most important economic sectors,” Ms Guevara said.
1/39 Brexit campaign
Boris Johnson MP, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and UKIP MP Douglas Carswell address the people of Stafford in Market Square during the Vote Leave Brexit Battle Bus tour on 17 May 2016. Their lead line on the tour was: “We send the EU £350 million a week, let’s fund our NHS instead.”
Getty
2/39 Voting day
A man shelters from the rain as he arrives at a polling station in London on 23 June 2016. Millions of Britons voted in the referendum on whether to stay in or leave the European Union
AFP/Getty
3/39 Referendum results
Leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, reacts at the Leave EU referendum party at Millbank Tower in central London as results indicated that it looked likely the UK would leave the European Union
AFP/Getty
4/39 Protesting the result
A young couple painted as EU flags and a man with a sign reading “I’m not leaving” protest outside Downing Street against the voters decision to leave the EU on 24 June 2016
Getty
5/39 David Cameron resigns
British Prime Minister David Cameron resigns on the steps of 10 Downing Street on 24 June 2016 after the results of the EU referendum were declared and the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union
Getty
6/39 Theresa May Becomes the new Conservative Party leader
Theresa May receives a kiss from her husband Philip, after becoming the new Conservative Party leader on 11 July 2016. May became Prime Minister two days later and although she voted to remain in the referendum was keen to lead Britain’s Brexit talks after her only rival in the race to succeed David Cameron pulled out unexpectedly. May was left as the only contender standing after the withdrawal from the leadership race of Andrea Leadsom, who faced criticism for suggesting she was more qualified to be prime minister because she had children
AFP/Getty
7/39 Lancaster House keynote speech on Brexit
British Prime Minister Theresa May delivers her keynote speech on Brexit at Lancaster House in London on 17 January 2017. Where she spoke about her offer to introduce a transition period after the UK formally leaves the European Union in March 2019.
Despite repeating the pro-Brexit mantra of “no deal is better than a bad deal”, the Prime Minister claimed she wanted a “tone of trust” between the negotiators and said Britain was leaving the EU but not Europe.
She said there should be a clear double lock needed for the transitional period to make sure businesses had time to prepare for changes to their trading relationships with the EU
Getty
8/39 Triggering of Article 50
British Prime Minister Theresa May in the cabinet, sitting below a painting of Britain’s first Prime Minister Robert Walpole, signs the official letter to European Council President Donald Tusk invoking Article 50 and the United Kingdom’s intention to leave the EU on 29 March 2017
Getty
9/39 Gibraltar nonsense
Tensions have risen over Brexit negotiations for the Rock of Gibraltar. The European Council has said Gibraltar would be included in a trade deal between London and Brussels only with the agreement of Spain. While former Conservative leader Michael Howard claimed that Theresa May would be prepared to go to war to protect the territory. Spain’s foreign minister stepped in only to assert that there was no need for the dispute
Getty
10/39 Shock snap election
Soon after triggering Article 50, Theresa May called on 18 April 2017 for a snap general election. The election would be on 8 June and it came as a shock move to many, with her reasoning to try to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the EU
AFP/Getty
11/39 Dissolution of Parliament for General Election Campaign
Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street after returning from Buckingham Palace on 3 May 2017. The Prime Minister visited the Queen to ask for the dissolution of Parliament signalling the official start to the general election campaign
Getty
12/39 Conservatives lose parliamentary majority
An arrangement of British daily newspapers showing front page stories about the exit poll results of the snap general election. British Prime Minister Theresa May faced pressure to resign on 9 June 2017 after losing her parliamentary majority, plunging the country into uncertainty as Brexit talks loomed. The pound fell sharply amid fears the Conservative leader would be unable to form a government
AFP/Getty
13/39 Labour gains
Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn gives a tumbs up as he arrives at Labour headquarters in central London on 9 June 2017 after the snap general election results showed a hung parliament with Labour gains and the Conservatives losing their majority
AFP/Getty
14/39 Brexit negotiations begin
Brexit Minister David Davis and European Commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations Michel Barnier address a press conference at the end of the first day of Brexit negotiations in Brussels on 19 June 2017
AFP/Getty
15/39 May speaks in Florence
British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks on 22 September 2017, in Florence. May sought to unlock Brexit talks after Brussels demanded more clarity on the crunch issues of budget payments and EU citizens’ rights
AFP/Getty
16/39 EU council summit – insufficient progress
German Chancellor Angela Merkel joins other EU leaders for a breakfast meeting during an EU summit in Brussels on 20 October 2017. The EU spoke about Brexit and announced that insufficient progress had been made
AFP/Getty
17/39 DUP derails settlement on the withdrawal part of Brexit
DUP Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds walks off after speaking to members of the media as a protester holding flags shouts after him outside the Houses of Parliament on 5 December 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to pull out of a deal with Brussels after the DUP said it would not accept terms which see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK
Getty
18/39 May suffers defeat over EU (Withdrawal) Bill
Theresa May suffers defeat in parliament over EU (Withdrawal) Bill on 13 December 2017. The Government was defeated by Conservative rebels and Labour MPs in a vote on its key piece of Brexit legislation.
MPs amended the EU (Withdrawal) Bill against Theresa May’s will, guaranteeing Parliament a “meaningful” vote on any Brexit deal she agrees with Brussels.
Ms May’s whips applied pressure on Conservative rebels who remained defiant in the Commons throughout the day and in the end the Government was defeated by 309 votes to 305
19/39 EU council summit – sufficient progress
Britain’s Prime minister Theresa May arrives to attend the first day of a European union summit in Brussels on 14 December 2017. European leaders discussed Brexit and announced there was finally sufficient progress at the end of the two days
AFP/Getty
20/39 The game moves to transition
Brexit Secretary David Davis gives evidence on developments in European Union divorce talks to the Commons Exiting the EU Committee in Portcullis House, London, on 24 January 2018
PA
21/39 Trade deal is what May wants
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures to Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May after they hold a press conference at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, on 18 January 2018. May and Macron agreed a new border security deal, through which the UK will pay more to France to stop migrants trying to reach British shores on 18 January 2018
AFP/Getty
22/39 Transition period agreed
The UK and EU agree terms for Brexit transition period on 19 March, 2018
Reuters
23/39 No agreement on Irish border
The EU and UK however failed to reach an agreement on the Irish border during the successful talks on other Brexit issues
AFP/Getty
24/39 EU attacks May’s ‘fantasy’ strategy
For months after the March deal is struck there is little significant progress in talks. One senior EU official tears into Britain’s ‘fantasy’ negotiating strategy and accuses Theresa May of not even having a position on a variety of important issue
Getty
25/39 UK releases Ireland plan
Britain releases a new customs plan to solve the Northern Ireland border but Michel Barnier says it leaves ‘unanswered’ questions and would not prevent a hard border
EbS
26/39 Chequers plan agreed
The cabinet agrees on a plan known as the “Chequers deal” on July 6 2018. The plan seeks regulatory alignment on goods and food, divergence on services, freedom from the European Courts of Justice and an end to free movement. Many were surprised that the hard Brexiteers of the cabinet would agree to this plan
PA
27/39 Chequers plan sparks resignations
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and numerous ministers resign in the days following the Chequers agreement
Reuters
28/39 Davis out, Raab in
On 9 July, Dominic Raab replaces David Davis as Brexit Secretary. Raab is a keen Brexiteer and was a housing minister before taking over from Davis
Reuters
29/39 Barnier’s “deal like no other”
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier claims on August 29 2018 that they are prepared to offer Britain a trade deal like no other, though he stressed that they will not divide or change the single market to accommodate Britain
AP
30/39 “My deal or no deal”
In an interview on Panorama on September 17, the Prime Minister insists that any Brexit deal will be offered to the EU on her terms. She asserts this amongst continued attacks on her approach to Brexit by Boris Johnson and the European Research Group, headed by Jacob Rees Mogg
BBC/Jeff Overs
31/39 EU leaders reject Chequers
Quite the blow was dealt to the Prime Minister at a EU leaders summit in Salzburg on September 20. European Council President Donald Tusk stated that the Chequers deal “will not work”
Reuters
32/39 May demands respect
Following the rejection of her Chequers plan the day before, the Prime Minister voiced her anger that the EU had dismissed it without offering an alternative. She stated that “throughout this process, I have treated the EU with nothing but respect. The UK expects the same. A good relationship at the end of this process depends on it.”
Getty
33/39 People’s Vote march
As the People’s Vote campaign and The Independent’s Final Say campaign gain traction, 700,000 people turn out in London to demand a final say on the UK’s Brexit deal on October 20 2018
PA
34/39 More resignations
As the Prime Minister settles on a Brexit deal, Brexit secretary Dominic Raab resigns along with Work and Pensions secretary Esther McVey and many other ministers
Getty
35/39 Final Say petitions delivered to Downing Street
People’s Vote supporting MPs Chukka Umunna, Justine Greening and Caroline Lucas and The Independent editor Christian Broughton deliver over a million signatures in favour of a People’s Vote to the Prime Minister at 10 Downing Street on December 3 2018
PA
36/39 May delays vote
On December 10, the Prime Minister delayed the vote on her Brexit deal as it was near certain not to pass through the Commons due to Tory rebels and lack of DUP support
AFP/Getty
37/39 No confidence motion
Tory MPs triggered a confidence vote in the Prime Minister on December 12. She won by 200 votes to 117
Reuters
38/39 Commons rejects the deal
Following the delay, the Prime Minister’s deal was rejected in the Commons by a historic 230 votes
AFP
39/39 Corbyn tables a no confidence motion
Following the rejection of the Prime Minister’s deal, opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion of no confidence in the government, which the government won by a margin of 19
AFP/Getty
1/39 Brexit campaign
Boris Johnson MP, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and UKIP MP Douglas Carswell address the people of Stafford in Market Square during the Vote Leave Brexit Battle Bus tour on 17 May 2016. Their lead line on the tour was: “We send the EU £350 million a week, let’s fund our NHS instead.”
Getty
2/39 Voting day
A man shelters from the rain as he arrives at a polling station in London on 23 June 2016. Millions of Britons voted in the referendum on whether to stay in or leave the European Union
AFP/Getty
3/39 Referendum results
Leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, reacts at the Leave EU referendum party at Millbank Tower in central London as results indicated that it looked likely the UK would leave the European Union
AFP/Getty
4/39 Protesting the result
A young couple painted as EU flags and a man with a sign reading “I’m not leaving” protest outside Downing Street against the voters decision to leave the EU on 24 June 2016
Getty
5/39 David Cameron resigns
British Prime Minister David Cameron resigns on the steps of 10 Downing Street on 24 June 2016 after the results of the EU referendum were declared and the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union
Getty
6/39 Theresa May Becomes the new Conservative Party leader
Theresa May receives a kiss from her husband Philip, after becoming the new Conservative Party leader on 11 July 2016. May became Prime Minister two days later and although she voted to remain in the referendum was keen to lead Britain’s Brexit talks after her only rival in the race to succeed David Cameron pulled out unexpectedly. May was left as the only contender standing after the withdrawal from the leadership race of Andrea Leadsom, who faced criticism for suggesting she was more qualified to be prime minister because she had children
AFP/Getty
7/39 Lancaster House keynote speech on Brexit
British Prime Minister Theresa May delivers her keynote speech on Brexit at Lancaster House in London on 17 January 2017. Where she spoke about her offer to introduce a transition period after the UK formally leaves the European Union in March 2019.
Despite repeating the pro-Brexit mantra of “no deal is better than a bad deal”, the Prime Minister claimed she wanted a “tone of trust” between the negotiators and said Britain was leaving the EU but not Europe.
She said there should be a clear double lock needed for the transitional period to make sure businesses had time to prepare for changes to their trading relationships with the EU
Getty
8/39 Triggering of Article 50
British Prime Minister Theresa May in the cabinet, sitting below a painting of Britain’s first Prime Minister Robert Walpole, signs the official letter to European Council President Donald Tusk invoking Article 50 and the United Kingdom’s intention to leave the EU on 29 March 2017
Getty
9/39 Gibraltar nonsense
Tensions have risen over Brexit negotiations for the Rock of Gibraltar. The European Council has said Gibraltar would be included in a trade deal between London and Brussels only with the agreement of Spain. While former Conservative leader Michael Howard claimed that Theresa May would be prepared to go to war to protect the territory. Spain’s foreign minister stepped in only to assert that there was no need for the dispute
Getty
10/39 Shock snap election
Soon after triggering Article 50, Theresa May called on 18 April 2017 for a snap general election. The election would be on 8 June and it came as a shock move to many, with her reasoning to try to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the EU
AFP/Getty
11/39 Dissolution of Parliament for General Election Campaign
Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street after returning from Buckingham Palace on 3 May 2017. The Prime Minister visited the Queen to ask for the dissolution of Parliament signalling the official start to the general election campaign
Getty
12/39 Conservatives lose parliamentary majority
An arrangement of British daily newspapers showing front page stories about the exit poll results of the snap general election. British Prime Minister Theresa May faced pressure to resign on 9 June 2017 after losing her parliamentary majority, plunging the country into uncertainty as Brexit talks loomed. The pound fell sharply amid fears the Conservative leader would be unable to form a government
AFP/Getty
13/39 Labour gains
Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn gives a tumbs up as he arrives at Labour headquarters in central London on 9 June 2017 after the snap general election results showed a hung parliament with Labour gains and the Conservatives losing their majority
AFP/Getty
14/39 Brexit negotiations begin
Brexit Minister David Davis and European Commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations Michel Barnier address a press conference at the end of the first day of Brexit negotiations in Brussels on 19 June 2017
AFP/Getty
15/39 May speaks in Florence
British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks on 22 September 2017, in Florence. May sought to unlock Brexit talks after Brussels demanded more clarity on the crunch issues of budget payments and EU citizens’ rights
AFP/Getty
16/39 EU council summit – insufficient progress
German Chancellor Angela Merkel joins other EU leaders for a breakfast meeting during an EU summit in Brussels on 20 October 2017. The EU spoke about Brexit and announced that insufficient progress had been made
AFP/Getty
17/39 DUP derails settlement on the withdrawal part of Brexit
DUP Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds walks off after speaking to members of the media as a protester holding flags shouts after him outside the Houses of Parliament on 5 December 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to pull out of a deal with Brussels after the DUP said it would not accept terms which see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK
Getty
18/39 May suffers defeat over EU (Withdrawal) Bill
Theresa May suffers defeat in parliament over EU (Withdrawal) Bill on 13 December 2017. The Government was defeated by Conservative rebels and Labour MPs in a vote on its key piece of Brexit legislation.
MPs amended the EU (Withdrawal) Bill against Theresa May’s will, guaranteeing Parliament a “meaningful” vote on any Brexit deal she agrees with Brussels.
Ms May’s whips applied pressure on Conservative rebels who remained defiant in the Commons throughout the day and in the end the Government was defeated by 309 votes to 305
19/39 EU council summit – sufficient progress
Britain’s Prime minister Theresa May arrives to attend the first day of a European union summit in Brussels on 14 December 2017. European leaders discussed Brexit and announced there was finally sufficient progress at the end of the two days
AFP/Getty
20/39 The game moves to transition
Brexit Secretary David Davis gives evidence on developments in European Union divorce talks to the Commons Exiting the EU Committee in Portcullis House, London, on 24 January 2018
PA
21/39 Trade deal is what May wants
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures to Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May after they hold a press conference at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, on 18 January 2018. May and Macron agreed a new border security deal, through which the UK will pay more to France to stop migrants trying to reach British shores on 18 January 2018
AFP/Getty
22/39 Transition period agreed
The UK and EU agree terms for Brexit transition period on 19 March, 2018
Reuters
23/39 No agreement on Irish border
The EU and UK however failed to reach an agreement on the Irish border during the successful talks on other Brexit issues
AFP/Getty
24/39 EU attacks May’s ‘fantasy’ strategy
For months after the March deal is struck there is little significant progress in talks. One senior EU official tears into Britain’s ‘fantasy’ negotiating strategy and accuses Theresa May of not even having a position on a variety of important issue
Getty
25/39 UK releases Ireland plan
Britain releases a new customs plan to solve the Northern Ireland border but Michel Barnier says it leaves ‘unanswered’ questions and would not prevent a hard border
EbS
26/39 Chequers plan agreed
The cabinet agrees on a plan known as the “Chequers deal” on July 6 2018. The plan seeks regulatory alignment on goods and food, divergence on services, freedom from the European Courts of Justice and an end to free movement. Many were surprised that the hard Brexiteers of the cabinet would agree to this plan
PA
27/39 Chequers plan sparks resignations
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and numerous ministers resign in the days following the Chequers agreement
Reuters
28/39 Davis out, Raab in
On 9 July, Dominic Raab replaces David Davis as Brexit Secretary. Raab is a keen Brexiteer and was a housing minister before taking over from Davis
Reuters
29/39 Barnier’s “deal like no other”
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier claims on August 29 2018 that they are prepared to offer Britain a trade deal like no other, though he stressed that they will not divide or change the single market to accommodate Britain
AP
30/39 “My deal or no deal”
In an interview on Panorama on September 17, the Prime Minister insists that any Brexit deal will be offered to the EU on her terms. She asserts this amongst continued attacks on her approach to Brexit by Boris Johnson and the European Research Group, headed by Jacob Rees Mogg
BBC/Jeff Overs
31/39 EU leaders reject Chequers
Quite the blow was dealt to the Prime Minister at a EU leaders summit in Salzburg on September 20. European Council President Donald Tusk stated that the Chequers deal “will not work”
Reuters
32/39 May demands respect
Following the rejection of her Chequers plan the day before, the Prime Minister voiced her anger that the EU had dismissed it without offering an alternative. She stated that “throughout this process, I have treated the EU with nothing but respect. The UK expects the same. A good relationship at the end of this process depends on it.”
Getty
33/39 People’s Vote march
As the People’s Vote campaign and The Independent’s Final Say campaign gain traction, 700,000 people turn out in London to demand a final say on the UK’s Brexit deal on October 20 2018
PA
34/39 More resignations
As the Prime Minister settles on a Brexit deal, Brexit secretary Dominic Raab resigns along with Work and Pensions secretary Esther McVey and many other ministers
Getty
35/39 Final Say petitions delivered to Downing Street
People’s Vote supporting MPs Chukka Umunna, Justine Greening and Caroline Lucas and The Independent editor Christian Broughton deliver over a million signatures in favour of a People’s Vote to the Prime Minister at 10 Downing Street on December 3 2018
PA
36/39 May delays vote
On December 10, the Prime Minister delayed the vote on her Brexit deal as it was near certain not to pass through the Commons due to Tory rebels and lack of DUP support
AFP/Getty
37/39 No confidence motion
Tory MPs triggered a confidence vote in the Prime Minister on December 12. She won by 200 votes to 117
Reuters
38/39 Commons rejects the deal
Following the delay, the Prime Minister’s deal was rejected in the Commons by a historic 230 votes
AFP
39/39 Corbyn tables a no confidence motion
Following the rejection of the Prime Minister’s deal, opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion of no confidence in the government, which the government won by a margin of 19
AFP/Getty
“If the IMF prediction on the wider economy is realised, there would be a total cost across Europe of over £40 billion and over 700,000 jobs, in our projections.
“Our members are already seeing an impact on their businesses and workforce.”
The comments come as the home secretary, Sajid Javid, failed to reject claims that a no-deal Brexit will make the country less safe, as he admitted there would be a change in the UK’s security capabilities while appearing on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show.
The cabinet minister’s remarks followed the head of the criminal records office, Rob Price, who told The Independent that dangerous criminals could go free in Britain after it leaves the EU if police officers are unable to access European conviction records.
Asked whether the country would be “less safe”, Mr Javid noted that most of the mechanisms applied to the UK from 2015, but continued: “I’m absolutely certain as home secretary, this is my most important job, is to do everything I can to keep this country safe.
“I’m absolutely confident that we will continue to be one of the safest countries in the world, even in a no-deal scenario.”
Additional reporting from agencies
The Independent has launched its #FinalSay campaign to demand that voters are given a voice on the final Brexit deal.